Markets › Kalshi › Sports
Spread on Kalshi
If Switzerland wins by more than 2.5 goals in the Switzerland vs Scotland professional UEFA Nations League soccer game originally scheduled for Nov 16, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fox Sports, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
26%
Median YES price across 176 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
52% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26¢ (now) | 1.3¢ | $2.59 | 27.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Spain wins by more than 1.5 goals | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 6,375 | Nov 14, 19:45 UTC |
| France wins by more than 1.5 goals? · France wins by more than 1.5 goals | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 3,502 | Nov 14, 19:45 UTC |
| England wins by more than 1.5 goals? · England wins by more than 1.5 goals | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 2,775 | Nov 14, 19:45 UTC |
| Serbia wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Serbia wins by more than 1.5 goals | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 2,046 | Nov 15, 19:45 UTC |
| Spain wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Spain wins by more than 2.5 goals | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 2,025 | Nov 14, 19:45 UTC |
| Belgium wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Belgium wins by more than 1.5 goals | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 891 | Nov 14, 17:00 UTC |
| France wins by more than 2.5 goals? · France wins by more than 2.5 goals | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 537 | Nov 14, 19:45 UTC |
| Azerbaijan wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Azerbaijan wins by more than 2.5 goals | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 471 | Nov 15, 19:45 UTC |
| England wins by more than 2.5 goals? · England wins by more than 2.5 goals | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 312 | Nov 14, 19:45 UTC |
| Norway wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Norway wins by more than 1.5 goals | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 299 | Nov 16, 17:00 UTC |
| San Marino wins by more than 1.5 goals? · San Marino wins by more than 1.5 goals | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 200 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| Finland wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Finland wins by more than 2.5 goals | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 200 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| Wales wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Wales wins by more than 2.5 goals | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 200 | Nov 16, 17:00 UTC |
| Faroe Islands wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Faroe Islands wins by more than 2.5 goals | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 200 | Nov 15, 19:45 UTC |
| Serbia wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Serbia wins by more than 2.5 goals | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 200 | Nov 15, 19:45 UTC |
| Slovenia wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Slovenia wins by more than 2.5 goals | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 200 | Nov 15, 19:45 UTC |
| North Macedonia wins by more than 2.5 goals? · North Macedonia wins by more than 2.5 goals | 10¢ | 10% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 200 | Nov 15, 19:45 UTC |
| North Macedonia wins by more than 1.5 goals? · North Macedonia wins by more than 1.5 goals | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 200 | Nov 15, 19:45 UTC |
| Liechtenstein wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Liechtenstein wins by more than 2.5 goals | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 200 | Nov 15, 19:45 UTC |
| Liechtenstein wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Liechtenstein wins by more than 1.5 goals | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 200 | Nov 15, 19:45 UTC |
| Gibraltar wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Gibraltar wins by more than 2.5 goals | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 200 | Nov 15, 19:45 UTC |
| Croatia wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Croatia wins by more than 2.5 goals | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 200 | Nov 14, 19:45 UTC |
| San Marino wins by more than 2.5 goals? · San Marino wins by more than 2.5 goals | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 199 | Nov 14, 19:45 UTC |
| San Marino wins by more than 1.5 goals? · San Marino wins by more than 1.5 goals | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 199 | Nov 14, 19:45 UTC |
| Latvia wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Latvia wins by more than 2.5 goals | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 199 | Nov 14, 19:45 UTC |
| Czechia wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Czechia wins by more than 2.5 goals | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 199 | Nov 14, 19:45 UTC |
| Germany wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Germany wins by more than 1.5 goals | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 198 | Nov 15, 19:45 UTC |
| Belarus wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Belarus wins by more than 2.5 goals | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 126 | Nov 14, 19:45 UTC |
| San Marino wins by more than 2.5 goals? · San Marino wins by more than 2.5 goals | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 100 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| Finland wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Finland wins by more than 1.5 goals | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 100 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| Azerbaijan wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Azerbaijan wins by more than 1.5 goals | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 96 | Nov 15, 19:45 UTC |
| Portugal wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Portugal wins by more than 1.5 goals | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 83 | Nov 16, 19:45 UTC |
| Netherlands wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Netherlands wins by more than 1.5 goals | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 42 | Nov 15, 19:45 UTC |
| Turkiye wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Turkiye wins by more than 1.5 goals | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 39 | Nov 14, 17:00 UTC |
| Italy wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Italy wins by more than 1.5 goals | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 28 | Nov 14, 19:45 UTC |
| Finland wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Finland wins by more than 2.5 goals | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 23 | Nov 14, 19:45 UTC |
| Spain wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Spain wins by more than 1.5 goals | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 21 | Nov 17, 19:45 UTC |
| Armenia wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Armenia wins by more than 2.5 goals | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 15 | Nov 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Czechia wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Czechia wins by more than 1.5 goals | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 10 | Nov 17, 19:45 UTC |
| Italy wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Italy wins by more than 2.5 goals | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 9 | Nov 14, 19:45 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 176 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.