What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 50¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.77.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 51% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 50%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Sports

Point Total on Kalshi

If over 5.5 goals are scored in the Switzerland vs Scotland professional UEFA Nations League soccer game originally scheduled for Nov 16, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: FIFA.

Market says (typical open contract)

50%

Median YES price across 264 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

99% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
49¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.79	50.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will over 4.5 goals be scored? · Over 4.5 goals scored	26¢	26%	1.3¢	—	51%	10,237	Nov 14, 19:45 UTC
Will over 4.5 goals be scored? · Over 4.5 goals scored	52¢	52%	1.7¢	—	95%	7,165	Nov 18, 15:00 UTC
Will over 4.5 goals be scored? · Over 4.5 goals scored	54¢	54%	1.7¢	—	92%	6,652	Nov 18, 19:45 UTC
Will over 4.5 goals be scored? · Over 4.5 goals scored	53¢	53%	1.7¢	—	94%	6,553	Nov 18, 17:00 UTC
Will over 4.5 goals be scored? · Over 4.5 goals scored	49¢	49%	1.7¢	—	98%	3,894	Nov 18, 19:45 UTC
Will over 4.5 goals be scored? · Over 4.5 goals scored	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	3,376	Nov 18, 19:45 UTC
Will over 2.5 goals be scored? · Over 2.5 goals scored	66¢	66%	1.6¢	—	67%	1,957	Nov 14, 19:45 UTC
Will over 3.5 goals be scored? · Over 3.5 goals scored	42¢	42%	1.7¢	—	85%	897	Nov 14, 19:45 UTC
Will over 0.5 goals be scored? · Over 0.5 goals scored	88¢	88%	0.8¢	—	25%	671	Nov 15, 17:00 UTC
Will over 2.5 goals be scored? · Over 2.5 goals scored	59¢	59%	1.7¢	—	82%	528	Nov 14, 19:45 UTC
Will over 4.5 goals be scored? · Over 4.5 goals scored	54¢	54%	1.7¢	—	92%	513	Nov 17, 17:00 UTC
Will over 1.5 goals be scored? · Over 1.5 goals scored	86¢	86%	0.9¢	—	29%	482	Nov 14, 19:45 UTC
Will over 5.5 goals be scored? · Over 5.5 goals scored	12¢	12%	0.8¢	—	25%	370	Nov 14, 19:45 UTC
Will over 4.5 goals be scored? · Over 4.5 goals scored	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	348	Nov 17, 17:00 UTC
Will over 2.5 goals be scored? · Over 2.5 goals scored	67¢	67%	1.5¢	—	66%	315	Nov 14, 19:45 UTC
Will over 3.5 goals be scored? · Over 3.5 goals scored	37¢	37%	1.6¢	—	74%	271	Nov 14, 19:45 UTC
Will over 3.5 goals be scored? · Over 3.5 goals scored	44¢	44%	1.7¢	—	88%	258	Nov 14, 19:45 UTC
Will over 5.5 goals be scored? · Over 5.5 goals scored	9¢	9%	0.6¢	—	18%	233	Nov 14, 19:45 UTC
Will over 2.5 goals be scored? · Over 2.5 goals scored	46¢	46%	1.7¢	—	91%	214	Nov 14, 17:00 UTC
Will over 3.5 goals be scored? · Over 3.5 goals scored	42¢	42%	1.7¢	—	85%	180	Nov 14, 17:00 UTC
Will over 2.5 goals be scored? · Over 2.5 goals scored	60¢	60%	1.7¢	—	80%	161	Nov 15, 19:45 UTC
Will over 2.5 goals be scored? · Over 2.5 goals scored	62¢	62%	1.6¢	—	75%	153	Nov 16, 19:45 UTC
Will over 1.5 goals be scored? · Over 1.5 goals scored	81¢	81%	1.1¢	—	38%	138	Nov 14, 19:45 UTC
Will over 3.5 goals be scored? · Over 3.5 goals scored	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	45%	125	Nov 15, 19:45 UTC
Will over 1.5 goals be scored? · Over 1.5 goals scored	85¢	85%	0.9¢	—	30%	123	Nov 14, 19:45 UTC
Will over 0.5 goals be scored? · Over 0.5 goals scored	97¢	97%	0.2¢	—	6%	107	Nov 14, 19:45 UTC
Will over 2.5 goals be scored? · Over 2.5 goals scored	44¢	44%	1.7¢	—	88%	75	Nov 15, 19:45 UTC
Will over 2.5 goals be scored? · Over 2.5 goals scored	37¢	37%	1.6¢	—	74%	74	Nov 15, 17:00 UTC
Will over 2.5 goals be scored? · Over 2.5 goals scored	52¢	52%	1.7¢	—	96%	73	Nov 14, 19:45 UTC
Will over 1.5 goals be scored? · Over 1.5 goals scored	46¢	46%	1.7¢	—	93%	65	Nov 18, 19:45 UTC
Will over 0.5 goals be scored? · Over 0.5 goals scored	46¢	46%	1.7¢	—	93%	65	Nov 18, 19:45 UTC
Will over 4.5 goals be scored? · Over 4.5 goals scored	19¢	19%	1.1¢	—	38%	65	Nov 14, 19:45 UTC
Will over 2.5 goals be scored? · Over 2.5 goals scored	64¢	64%	1.6¢	—	71%	61	Nov 14, 17:00 UTC
Will over 2.5 goals be scored? · Over 2.5 goals scored	36¢	36%	1.6¢	—	73%	61	Nov 16, 17:00 UTC
Will over 0.5 goals be scored? · Over 0.5 goals scored	83¢	83%	1.0¢	—	34%	61	Nov 15, 19:45 UTC
Will over 1.5 goals be scored? · Over 1.5 goals scored	84¢	84%	0.9¢	—	32%	59	Nov 14, 17:00 UTC
Will over 2.5 goals be scored? · Over 2.5 goals scored	58¢	58%	1.7¢	—	84%	49	Nov 14, 19:45 UTC
Will over 4.5 goals be scored? · Over 4.5 goals scored	16¢	16%	1.0¢	—	33%	23	Nov 14, 19:45 UTC
Will over 1.5 goals be scored? · Over 1.5 goals scored	91¢	91%	0.6¢	—	18%	22	Nov 17, 19:45 UTC
Will over 0.5 goals be scored? · Over 0.5 goals scored	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	21	Nov 18, 17:00 UTC

Showing the 40 most traded of 264 open contracts.

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.