What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 0¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.48.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 1% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 0%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Sports

UFC Flyweight Title on Kalshi

If Tatsuro Taira holds the UFC Flyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: MMA Fighting, Fox Sports, ESPN, the Governing League.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

1% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
1¢ (now)	0.1¢	$3.47	1.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Who will hold the UFC Flyweight Title title on Dec 31, 2026? · Joshua Van	96¢	96%	0.3¢	—	8%	108,300	Dec 31, 17:00 UTC
Who will hold the UFC Flyweight Title title on Dec 31, 2026? · Alexandre Pantoja	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	101,175	Dec 31, 17:00 UTC
Who will hold the UFC Flyweight Title title on Dec 31, 2026? · Manel Kape	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	46,653	Dec 31, 17:00 UTC
Who will hold the UFC Flyweight Title title on Dec 31, 2026? · Tatsuro Taira	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	27,921	Dec 31, 17:00 UTC
Who will hold the UFC Flyweight Title title on Dec 31, 2026? · Muhammad Mokaev	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	26,595	Dec 31, 17:00 UTC
Who will hold the UFC Flyweight Title title on Dec 31, 2026? · Brandon Moreno	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	17,611	Dec 31, 17:00 UTC
Who will hold the UFC Flyweight Title title on Dec 31, 2026? · Amir Albazi	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	16,694	Dec 31, 17:00 UTC
Who will hold the UFC Flyweight Title title on Dec 31, 2026? · Brandon Royval	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	14,015	Dec 31, 17:00 UTC
Who will hold the UFC Flyweight Title title on Dec 31, 2026? · Kai Kara-France	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	13,502	Dec 31, 17:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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