What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 0¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.48.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 1% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 0%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Sports

UFC Lightweight Title on Kalshi

If Mauricio Ruffy is the UFC Lightweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: MMA Fighting, Fox Sports, ESPN, the Governing League.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

1% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
1¢ (now)	0.1¢	$3.47	1.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Who will be the Lightweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026? · Arman Tsarukyan	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	555,023	Dec 31, 17:00 UTC
Who will be the Lightweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026? · Justin Gaethje	92¢	92%	0.5¢	—	15%	255,763	Dec 31, 17:00 UTC
Who will be the Lightweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026? · Ilia Topuria	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	226,800	Dec 31, 17:00 UTC
Who will be the Lightweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026? · Paddy Pimblett	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	122,247	Dec 31, 17:00 UTC
Who will be the Lightweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026? · Charles Oliveira	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	98,405	Dec 31, 17:00 UTC
Who will be the Lightweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026? · Alexander Volkanovski	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	48,563	Dec 31, 17:00 UTC
Who will be the Lightweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026? · Max Holloway	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	30,784	Dec 31, 17:00 UTC
Who will be the Lightweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026? · Islam Makhachev	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	29,834	Dec 31, 17:00 UTC
Who will be the Lightweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026? · Mauricio Ruffy	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	23,016	Dec 31, 17:00 UTC
Who will be the Lightweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026? · Benoit Saint-Denis	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	15,945	Dec 31, 17:00 UTC
Who will be the Lightweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026? · Dan Hooker	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	5,551	Dec 31, 17:00 UTC
Who will be the Lightweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026? · Mateusz Gamrot	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	2,834	Dec 31, 17:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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