What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 81¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $0.66.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 82% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 81%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Next UK by-election announced? on Kalshi

If a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: The Verge, ABC, Fox News, The Wall Street Journal, The Guardian, Bloomberg News, The Information, CBS, South China Morning Post, NBC, BBC, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, ABC News Australia, The New York Times, Semafor, MSNBC, the Associated Press, CBC, Reuters, Politico.

Market says (typical open contract)

81%

Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

38% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
81¢ (now)	1.1¢	$0.66	82.1%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland that a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown before Apr 1, 2027? · Before Apr 1, 2027	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	95%	5,332	Apr 01, 03:59 UTC
Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland that a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown before Jul 1, 2027? · Before Jul 1, 2027	81¢	81%	1.1¢	—	38%	5,016	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland that a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027	28¢	28%	1.4¢	—	55%	188	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will it be reported by Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland that a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown before Jan 1, 2028? · Before Jan 1, 2028	90¢	90%	0.7¢	—	21%	0	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.