Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Next UK coalition on Kalshi
If Reform UK, with Reform UK not holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons and with no other party in a confidence and supply arrangement with the ruling government exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: country, Politico.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 19 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
8% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Labour majority form the next government in the United Kingdom? · Labour majority | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 1,396 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Labour, Liberal Democrat, and Green coalition form the next government in the United Kingdom? · Labour, Liberal Democrat, and Green coalition | 7¢ | 7% | 0.4¢ | — | 14% | 327 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Conservative minority form the next government in the United Kingdom? · Conservative minority | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 269 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Labour minority + SNP support form the next government in the United Kingdom? · Labour minority + SNP support | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 197 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Labour minority form the next government in the United Kingdom? · Labour minority | 5¢ | 5% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 192 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Labour minority + Liberal Democrat support form the next government in the United Kingdom? · Labour minority + Liberal Democrat support | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 168 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Labour minority + Green support form the next government in the United Kingdom? · Labour minority + Green support | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 166 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Labour and Liberal Democrat coalition form the next government in the United Kingdom? · Labour and Liberal Democrat coalition | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 141 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Labour minority + LD/Green/SNP/Plaid support form the next government in the United Kingdom? · Labour minority + LD/Green/SNP/Plaid support | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 139 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Reform UK minority + DUP support form the next government in the United Kingdom? · Reform UK minority + DUP support | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 114 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Reform UK and Conservative coalition form the next government in the United Kingdom? · Reform UK and Conservative coalition | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 78 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Conservative minority + DUP support form the next government in the United Kingdom? · Conservative minority + DUP support | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 76 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Reform UK, Conservative, and DUP coalition form the next government in the United Kingdom? · Reform UK, Conservative, and DUP coalition | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 63 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Conservative majority form the next government in the United Kingdom? · Conservative majority | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 63 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Reform UK majority form the next government in the United Kingdom? · Reform UK majority | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 50 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Conservative and Liberal Democrat coalition form the next government in the United Kingdom? · Conservative and Liberal Democrat coalition | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 46 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Reform UK minority form the next government in the United Kingdom? · Reform UK minority | 7¢ | 7% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 29 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Reform UK minority + Conservative support form the next government in the United Kingdom? · Reform UK minority + Conservative support | 7¢ | 7% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 22 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Conservative minority + Reform UK support form the next government in the United Kingdom? · Conservative minority + Reform UK support | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 9 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.