What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 31¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.41.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 32% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 31%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

Year of the next UK general election on Kalshi

If, after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, the claim that 2029 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred has been reported as confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: the New York Times, Associated Press, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, The Information, NBC, CBS News, Axios, ABC News, The Washington Post, Fox News, CNN, Semafor, Politico, MSNBC, Reuters.

Market says (typical open contract)

31%

Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

62% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
31¢ (now)	1.5¢	$2.41	32.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will it be confirmed that 2026 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred? · 2026	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	3,866	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will it be confirmed that 2027 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred? · 2027	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	24%	374	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will it be confirmed that 2028 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred? · 2028	31¢	31%	1.5¢	—	62%	148	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will it be confirmed that 2029 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred? · 2029	57¢	57%	1.7¢	—	85%	49	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.