Markets › Kalshi › Politics
UK Poll of Polls first place on Kalshi
If Reform UK is first in POLITICO’s UK Poll of Polls on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Politico EU.
Market says (typical open contract)
6%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
11% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6¢ (now) | 0.4¢ | $3.29 | 6.4% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Reform UK be first in POLITICO’s UK Poll of Polls on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET? · Reform UK | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Dec 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Restore Britain be first in POLITICO’s UK Poll of Polls on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET? · Restore Britain | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Dec 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Liberal Democrats be first in POLITICO’s UK Poll of Polls on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET? · Liberal Democrats | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Dec 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Labour Party be first in POLITICO’s UK Poll of Polls on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET? · Labour Party | 85¢ | 85% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Dec 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Green Party be first in POLITICO’s UK Poll of Polls on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET? · Green Party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Dec 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Conservative Party be first in POLITICO’s UK Poll of Polls on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET? · Conservative Party | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Dec 31, 14:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.