What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 20¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.80.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 21% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 20%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

UK Renewables Obligation scheme changes on Kalshi

If the United Kingdom agrees to or announces the removal or replacement of the Renewables Obligation Certificate buy-out fund redistribution mechanism before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Deutsche Welle, The Guardian, BBC News, France 24 English, NHK World-Japan, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, NBC News, The Times of India, CBS News, ABC News, The Washington Post, Fox News, Financial Times, CNN, ABC News Australia, The New York Times, The Globe and Mail, Al Jazeera English, the Associated Press, Reuters, The South China Morning Post, Politico, Channel NewsAsia.

Market says (typical open contract)

20%

Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

40% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
20¢ (now)	1.1¢	$2.80	21.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce the adoption of an inflation index other than CPI for the Renewables Obligation buy-out price before Jan 1, 2028? · Index change	14¢	14%	0.8¢	—	27%	1,341	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce the removal or replacement of the Renewables Obligation Certificate buy-out fund redistribution mechanism before Jan 1, 2028? · ROC recycle removal	52¢	52%	1.7¢	—	95%	636	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce the termination of the Renewables Obligation scheme for existing accredited generators before their scheduled end dates before Jan 1, 2028? · Cancellation	20¢	20%	1.1¢	—	40%	23	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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