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Frontier Group Holdings KPI on Kalshi
If Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. reports Above 84% load factor in Q4 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 51¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.72 | 52.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. report Above 84% load factor in Q4 2026? · Above 84% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jun 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. report Above 83% load factor in Q4 2026? · Above 83% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jun 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. report Above 82% load factor in Q4 2026? · Above 82% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jun 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. report Above 81% load factor in Q4 2026? · Above 81% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jun 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. report Above 80% load factor in Q4 2026? · Above 80% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jun 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. report Above 79% load factor in Q4 2026? · Above 79% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jun 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. report Above 78% load factor in Q4 2026? · Above 78% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jun 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. report Above 77% load factor in Q4 2026? · Above 77% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jun 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. report Above 76% load factor in Q4 2026? · Above 76% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jun 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. report Above 75% load factor in Q4 2026? · Above 75% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jun 10, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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