What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 4¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.38.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 4% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 4%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Entertainment

Up Only Guests on Kalshi

If Barron Trump is on the UpOnly Podcast before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: production company's official channels, Apple Podcasts, The Source Agencies are, official website or platform of media, media, etc, media's official social media accounts, HBO Max, in hierarchical order, Spotify, official website or platform where media is distributed (Netflix.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

7% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
4¢ (now)	0.3¢	$3.36	4.3%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Jeff Yan be on UpOnly Podcast before Jan 2027? · Jeff Yan	7¢	7%	0.5¢	—	14%	8,160	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will GCR be on UpOnly Podcast before Jan 2027? · GCR	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	4,487	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Brian Armstrong be on UpOnly Podcast before Jan 2027? · Brian Armstrong	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	17%	3,247	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Sam Bankman-Fried be on UpOnly Podcast before Jan 2027? · Sam Bankman-Fried	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	2,285	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Ansem be on UpOnly Podcast before Jan 2027? · Ansem	25¢	25%	1.3¢	—	50%	1,907	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Jesse Pollak be on UpOnly Podcast before Jan 2027? · Jesse Pollak	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	1,282	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Arthur Hayes be on UpOnly Podcast before Jan 2027? · Arthur Hayes	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	936	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Barron Trump be on UpOnly Podcast before Jan 2027? · Barron Trump	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	9%	866	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Martin Shkreli be on UpOnly Podcast before Jan 2027? · Martin Shkreli	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	584	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will James Wynn be on UpOnly Podcast before Jan 2027? · James Wynn	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	374	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will DegenPing be on UpOnly Podcast before Jan 2027? · DegenPing	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	3	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.