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Uruguayan Premier Division on Kalshi
If Montevideo Wanderers is the 2026 Uruguayan Primera Division champion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
42%
Median YES price across 16 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
85% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 42¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.03 | 43.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will CA Penarol Montevideo win the Uruguayan Primera Division? · CA Penarol Montevideo | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 86 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Club Nacional de Football win the Uruguayan Primera Division? · Club Nacional de Football | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 21 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Racing Club Montevideo win the Uruguayan Primera Division? · Racing Club Montevideo | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 7 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Montevideo Wanderers win the Uruguayan Primera Division? · Montevideo Wanderers | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 0 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Montevideo City Torque win the Uruguayan Primera Division? · Montevideo City Torque | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 0 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will CA Progreso win the Uruguayan Primera Division? · CA Progreso | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 0 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Deportivo Maldonado win the Uruguayan Primera Division? · Deportivo Maldonado | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 0 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Liverpool Montevideo win the Uruguayan Primera Division? · Liverpool Montevideo | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 0 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will CA Juventud de Las Piedras win the Uruguayan Primera Division? · CA Juventud de Las Piedras | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 0 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Central Espanol FC win the Uruguayan Primera Division? · Central Espanol FC | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 0 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Defensor Sporting win the Uruguayan Primera Division? · Defensor Sporting | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 0 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Danubio FC win the Uruguayan Primera Division? · Danubio FC | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 0 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Cerro Largo FC win the Uruguayan Primera Division? · Cerro Largo FC | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 0 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will CA Cerro win the Uruguayan Primera Division? · CA Cerro | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 0 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will CA Boston River win the Uruguayan Primera Division? · CA Boston River | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 0 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Albion FC win the Uruguayan Primera Division? · Albion FC | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 0 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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