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Uruguay Primera Division Game on Kalshi
If Tie is the result of the Central Espanol vs Boston River professional Uruguay Primera Division soccer game originally scheduled for Nov 14, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
25%
Median YES price across 15 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
50% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25¢ (now) | 1.3¢ | $2.63 | 26.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tie is the result · Tie | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 0 | Nov 16, 13:00 UTC |
| Central Espanol wins · Central Espanol | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 0 | Nov 16, 13:00 UTC |
| Boston River wins · Boston River | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 0 | Nov 16, 13:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:30 UTC |
| Dep Maldonado wins · Dep Maldonado | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:30 UTC |
| Cerro wins · Cerro | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 0 | Nov 16, 23:00 UTC |
| Nacional wins · Nacional | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 0 | Nov 16, 23:00 UTC |
| Albion wins · Albion | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Nov 16, 23:00 UTC |
| Montevideo City wins · Montevideo City | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 15, 20:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Nov 15, 20:00 UTC |
| Racing Club wins · Racing Club | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 0 | Nov 15, 20:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Nov 14, 23:00 UTC |
| Progreso wins · Progreso | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 0 | Nov 14, 23:00 UTC |
| Cerro Largo wins · Cerro Largo | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 23:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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