Markets › Kalshi › Economics
U.S. headline inflation at year end on Kalshi
If the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U, U.S. city average, all items, not seasonally adjusted, in December 2036 is above 6.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation, Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index.
Market says (typical open contract)
36%
Median YES price across 130 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
72% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 36¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $2.24 | 37.6% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2027 be above 6.0%? · Above 6.0% | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 27,628 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2027 be above 4.0%? · Above 4.0% | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 13,282 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2029 be above 4.0%? · Above 4.0% | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 13,120 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2027 be above 2.5%? · Above 2.5% | 75¢ | 75% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 8,458 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2027 be above 5.5%? · Above 5.5% | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 7,149 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2027 be above 3.0%? · Above 3.0% | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 4,324 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2027 be above 2.0%? · Above 2.0% | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 3,282 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2028 be above 1.0%? · Above 1.0% | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 3,092 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2027 be above 3.5%? · Above 3.5% | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 2,871 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2027 be above 0.0%? · Above 0.0% | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 2,316 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2029 be above 3.5%? · Above 3.5% | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 2,206 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2030 be above 2.0%? · Above 2.0% | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 1,956 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2028 be above 1.5%? · Above 1.5% | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 1,925 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2028 be above 4.0%? · Above 4.0% | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 1,829 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2029 be above 6.0%? · Above 6.0% | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 1,551 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2031 be above 6.0%? · Above 6.0% | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 1,416 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2029 be above 4.5%? · Above 4.5% | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 939 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2029 be above 5.5%? · Above 5.5% | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 926 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2028 be above 3.5%? · Above 3.5% | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 904 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2027 be above 4.5%? · Above 4.5% | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 834 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2036 be above 0.5%? · Above 0.5% | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 812 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2030 be above 4.5%? · Above 4.5% | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 732 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2031 be above 4.0%? · Above 4.0% | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 719 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2031 be above 3.5%? · Above 3.5% | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 666 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2027 be above 5.0%? · Above 5.0% | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 557 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2030 be above 5.0%? · Above 5.0% | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 522 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2034 be above 0.5%? · Above 0.5% | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 509 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2034 be above 1.0%? · Above 1.0% | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 490 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2035 be above 4.0%? · Above 4.0% | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 425 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2035 be above 6.0%? · Above 6.0% | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 408 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2029 be above 0.5%? · Above 0.5% | 84¢ | 84% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 405 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2028 be above 2.0%? · Above 2.0% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 402 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2036 be above 0.0%? · Above 0.0% | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 384 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2034 be above 4.0%? · Above 4.0% | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 347 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2027 be above 1.5%? · Above 1.5% | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 339 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2029 be above 1.0%? · Above 1.0% | 82¢ | 82% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 331 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2031 be above 5.0%? · Above 5.0% | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 314 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2034 be above 5.0%? · Above 5.0% | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 270 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2036 be above 5.0%? · Above 5.0% | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 240 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2035 be above 1.5%? · Above 1.5% | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 233 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 130 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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