Markets › Kalshi › Financials
USD/BRL max on Kalshi
If the USD/BRL rises above 7.2499 before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ICE.
Market says (typical open contract)
6%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
12% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6¢ (now) | 0.4¢ | $3.29 | 6.4% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the maximum USD/BRL exchange rate reach 6.9999 by Dec 31, 2026? · 7 or above | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 268,102 | Dec 31, 16:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum USD/BRL exchange rate reach 6.4999 by Dec 31, 2026? · 6.5 or above | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 127,016 | Dec 31, 16:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum USD/BRL exchange rate reach 6.7499 by Dec 31, 2026? · 6.75 or above | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 72,378 | Dec 31, 16:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum USD/BRL exchange rate reach 7.2499 by Dec 31, 2026? · 7.25 or above | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 57,075 | Dec 31, 16:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum USD/BRL exchange rate reach 5.9999 by Dec 31, 2026? · 6 or above | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 32,642 | Dec 31, 16:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum USD/BRL exchange rate reach 5.7499 by Dec 31, 2026? · 5.75 or above | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 4,984 | Dec 31, 16:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum USD/BRL exchange rate reach 6.2499 by Dec 31, 2026? · 6.25 or above | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 778 | Dec 31, 16:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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