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U.S. dollar share of international Swift payments on Kalshi
If the U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone, for December 2026 is above 60.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation, Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index.
Market says (typical open contract)
61%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
78% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 61¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.37 | 62.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 59.0%? · Above 59.0% | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 401 | Jan 21, 14:59 UTC |
| Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 60.0%? · Above 60.0% | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Jan 21, 14:59 UTC |
| Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 59.5%? · Above 59.5% | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Jan 21, 14:59 UTC |
| Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 58.5%? · Above 58.5% | 61¢ | 61% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 0 | Jan 21, 14:59 UTC |
| Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 58.0%? · Above 58.0% | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Jan 21, 14:59 UTC |
| Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 57.5%? · Above 57.5% | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Jan 21, 14:59 UTC |
| Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 57.0%? · Above 57.0% | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Jan 21, 14:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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