Markets › Kalshi › Financials
USD/JPY daily range on Kalshi
If the open price of the Dollar/Yen for November 10, 2026 is above 159.749 at 10 AM EST, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ICE .
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 15 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
9% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the USD/JPY open price be between 157.750 and 157.999 at Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 157.750 to 157.999 | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 52 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the USD/JPY open price be above 159.749 at Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 159.75 or above | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the USD/JPY open price be below 156.500 at Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 156.499 or below | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the USD/JPY open price be between 159.500 and 159.749 at Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 159.500 to 159.749 | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the USD/JPY open price be between 159.250 and 159.499 at Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 159.250 to 159.499 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the USD/JPY open price be between 159.000 and 159.249 at Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 159.000 to 159.249 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the USD/JPY open price be between 158.750 and 158.999 at Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 158.750 to 158.999 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the USD/JPY open price be between 158.500 and 158.749 at Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 158.500 to 158.749 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the USD/JPY open price be between 158.250 and 158.499 at Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 158.250 to 158.499 | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 0 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the USD/JPY open price be between 158.000 and 158.249 at Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 158.000 to 158.249 | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 0 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the USD/JPY open price be between 157.500 and 157.749 at Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 157.500 to 157.749 | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the USD/JPY open price be between 157.250 and 157.499 at Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 157.250 to 157.499 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the USD/JPY open price be between 157.000 and 157.249 at Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 157.000 to 157.249 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the USD/JPY open price be between 156.750 and 156.999 at Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 156.750 to 156.999 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the USD/JPY open price be between 156.500 and 156.749 at Nov 10, 2026 at 10am EST? · 156.500 to 156.749 | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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