Markets › Kalshi › Financials
USDMXN Weekly on Kalshi
If the value of the USDMXN opening candlestick is Above 18.625 at 5pm ET on Nov 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Pyth - USDMXN.
Market says (typical open contract)
32%
Median YES price across 20 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
64% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 32¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $2.38 | 33.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will USDMXN be Above 18.625 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 18.625 | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDMXN be Above 18.623 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 18.623 | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDMXN be Above 18.621 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 18.621 | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDMXN be Above 18.619 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 18.619 | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDMXN be Above 18.617 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 18.617 | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDMXN be Above 18.615 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 18.615 | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDMXN be Above 18.613 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 18.613 | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDMXN be Above 18.611 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 18.611 | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDMXN be Above 18.609 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 18.609 | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDMXN be Above 18.607 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 18.607 | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDMXN be Above 18.605 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 18.605 | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDMXN be Above 18.603 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 18.603 | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDMXN be Above 18.601 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 18.601 | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDMXN be Above 18.599 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 18.599 | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDMXN be Above 18.597 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 18.597 | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDMXN be Above 18.595 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 18.595 | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDMXN be Above 18.593 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 18.593 | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDMXN be Above 18.591 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 18.591 | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDMXN be Above 18.589 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 18.589 | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDMXN be Above 18.587 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 18.587 | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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