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USD/MXN yearly high on Kalshi
If the USD/MXN exchange rate published by Pyth Network is above 24 Mexican pesos per U.S. dollar at any point after issuance and before January 1, 2027 at 10:00 AM EST, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Pyth - USDMXN.
Market says (typical open contract)
25%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
50% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25¢ (now) | 1.3¢ | $2.63 | 26.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will USD/MXN exceed 20 before Jan 1, 2027 at 10:00 AM EST? · Above 20 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 3,849 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will USD/MXN exceed 21 before Jan 1, 2027 at 10:00 AM EST? · Above 21 | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 3,327 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will USD/MXN exceed 19.5 before Jan 1, 2027 at 10:00 AM EST? · Above 19.5 | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 2,931 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will USD/MXN exceed 19 before Jan 1, 2027 at 10:00 AM EST? · Above 19 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 2,523 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will USD/MXN exceed 20.5 before Jan 1, 2027 at 10:00 AM EST? · Above 20.5 | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 770 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will USD/MXN exceed 24 before Jan 1, 2027 at 10:00 AM EST? · Above 24 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 547 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will USD/MXN exceed 23 before Jan 1, 2027 at 10:00 AM EST? · Above 23 | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 256 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will USD/MXN exceed 22 before Jan 1, 2027 at 10:00 AM EST? · Above 22 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 63 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.