Markets › Kalshi › Financials
De-dollarization: USD index yearly touch on Kalshi
If the U.S. dollar index (DXY) is above 105 at any time between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ICE.
Market says (typical open contract)
30%
Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
60% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of the USDX be above 104 by Dec 31, 2026? · Above 104 | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 15,265 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the price of the USDX be above 105 by Dec 31, 2026? · Above 105 | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 7,924 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the price of the USDX be above 103 by Dec 31, 2026? · Above 103 | 61¢ | 61% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 7,300 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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