Markets › Kalshi › Economics
Median US New Home Price on Kalshi
If the Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for October 2026 is above $430,000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: FRED Median New Home Price.
Market says (typical open contract)
40%
Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
80% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 40¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.10 | 41.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for October 2026 be above $390,000? · Above $390,000 | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 549 | Nov 25, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for October 2026 be above $395,000? · Above $395,000 | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 479 | Nov 25, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for October 2026 be above $405,000? · Above $405,000 | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 384 | Nov 25, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for October 2026 be above $380,000? · Above $380,000 | 79¢ | 79% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 213 | Nov 25, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for October 2026 be above $375,000? · Above $375,000 | 87¢ | 87% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 210 | Nov 25, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for October 2026 be above $400,000? · Above $400,000 | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 172 | Nov 25, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for October 2026 be above $385,000? · Above $385,000 | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 132 | Nov 25, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for October 2026 be above $430,000? · Above $430,000 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 50 | Nov 25, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for October 2026 be above $425,000? · Above $425,000 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 2 | Nov 25, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for October 2026 be above $420,000? · Above $420,000 | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Nov 25, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for October 2026 be above $415,000? · Above $415,000 | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 0 | Nov 25, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for October 2026 be above $410,000? · Above $410,000 | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 0 | Nov 25, 14:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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