What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 9¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.19.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 10% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 9%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

China-mediated U.S.-Iran senior-level meeting on Kalshi

If the United States and Iran hold a China-mediated senior-level diplomatic meeting after Issuance and before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: The Guardian, CBC, ABC, Fox News, BBC, The Wall Street Journal, The Information, CBS, South China Morning Post, NBC, Axios, The Washington Post, CNN, ABC News Australia, Semafor, Politico, MSNBC, Bloomberg News, the Associated Press, Reuters, the New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

18% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
9¢ (now)	0.6¢	$3.19	9.6%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the U.S. and Iran hold a China-mediated meeting before Feb 1, 2027? · Before Feb 1, 2027	9¢	9%	0.6¢	—	18%	929	Feb 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.