What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 38¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.15.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 40% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 38%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

U.S.-Iran senior-level meeting on Kalshi

If the United States and Iran hold a senior-level diplomatic meeting after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: the New York Times, ABC, Fox News, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Guardian, Bloomberg News, The Information, CBS, South China Morning Post, NBC, Axios, BBC, The Washington Post, CNN, ABC News Australia, MSNBC, the Associated Press, CBC, Reuters, Politico.

Market says (typical open contract)

38%

Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

77% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
39¢ (now)	1.7¢	$2.14	40.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the U.S. and Iran hold a senior-level meeting before Dec 1, 2026? · Before Dec 1, 2026	20¢	20%	1.1¢	—	39%	32,059	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the U.S. and Iran hold a senior-level meeting before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027	36¢	36%	1.6¢	—	73%	7,303	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the U.S. and Iran hold a senior-level meeting before Feb 1, 2027? · Before Feb 1, 2027	38¢	38%	1.7¢	—	77%	2,336	Feb 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the U.S. and Iran hold a senior-level meeting before Mar 1, 2027? · Before Mar 1, 2027	40¢	40%	1.7¢	—	81%	1,153	Mar 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the U.S. and Iran hold a senior-level meeting before Apr 1, 2027? · Before Apr 1, 2027	52¢	52%	1.7¢	—	97%	956	Apr 01, 03:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.