Markets › Kalshi › Elections
U.S. Senate 2028: who will run? on Kalshi
If Sharice Davids has announced that they will run for any United States Senate seat in 2028 after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2028, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ABC, The Information, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, CBS, NBC, The Washington Post, Axios, Fox News, CNN, Bloomberg News, the Associated Press, Reuters, Politico, the New York Times.
Market says (typical open contract)
16%
Median YES price across 30 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
31% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15¢ (now) | 0.9¢ | $2.98 | 15.9% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ben Wikler announce a run for any United States Senate seat in 2028? · Ben Wikler | 82¢ | 82% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 8,068 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Marjorie Taylor Greene announce a run for any United States Senate seat in 2028? · Marjorie Taylor Greene | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 1,563 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Brian Kemp announce a run for any United States Senate seat in 2028? · Brian Kemp | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 997 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Letitia James announce a run for any United States Senate seat in 2028? · Letitia James | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 970 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Thomas Massie announce a run for any United States Senate seat in 2028? · Thomas Massie | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 673 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Chris Sununu announce a run for any United States Senate seat in 2028? · Chris Sununu | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 619 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tim Burchett announce a run for any United States Senate seat in 2028? · Tim Burchett | 82¢ | 82% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 200 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Jeff Jackson announce a run for any United States Senate seat in 2028? · Jeff Jackson | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 149 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Spencer Pratt announce a run for any United States Senate seat in 2028? · Spencer Pratt | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 58 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Joe Lombardo announce a run for any United States Senate seat in 2028? · Joe Lombardo | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 49 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Kari Lake announce a run for any United States Senate seat in 2028? · Kari Lake | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 42 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ritchie Torres announce a run for any United States Senate seat in 2028? · Ritchie Torres | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 26 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ashley Hinson announce a run for any United States Senate seat in 2028? · Ashley Hinson | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 24 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Angie Nixon announce a run for any United States Senate seat in 2028? · Angie Nixon | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 5 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Don Davis announce a run for any United States Senate seat in 2028? · Don Davis | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Sharice Davids announce a run for any United States Senate seat in 2028? · Sharice Davids | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Laura Kelly announce a run for any United States Senate seat in 2028? · Laura Kelly | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Kelly Ayotte announce a run for any United States Senate seat in 2028? · Kelly Ayotte | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Frank LaRose announce a run for any United States Senate seat in 2028? · Frank LaRose | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will John Bel Edwards announce a run for any United States Senate seat in 2028? · John Bel Edwards | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Carlin Yoder announce a run for any United States Senate seat in 2028? · Carlin Yoder | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Jon Husted announce a run for any United States Senate seat in 2028? · Jon Husted | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Jared Moskowitz announce a run for any United States Senate seat in 2028? · Jared Moskowitz | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Rich McCormick announce a run for any United States Senate seat in 2028? · Rich McCormick | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Pat Grassley announce a run for any United States Senate seat in 2028? · Pat Grassley | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Mike Dunleavy announce a run for any United States Senate seat in 2028? · Mike Dunleavy | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Lara Trump announce a run for any United States Senate seat in 2028? · Lara Trump | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Doug Ducey announce a run for any United States Senate seat in 2028? · Doug Ducey | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Dan Bongino announce a run for any United States Senate seat in 2028? · Dan Bongino | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Bryan Steil announce a run for any United States Senate seat in 2028? · Bryan Steil | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.