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Valorant game winner on Kalshi
If Pixel Lumina wins the VCT EMEA Kickoff: Europe Qualifier 2027: Pixel Lumina vs. Aurora Gaming Valorant match originally scheduled for Nov 10, 2026 at 11:00 AM EST, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Valorant, Gamers World, BO3.
Market says (typical open contract)
52%
Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
97% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 52¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.68 | 53.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| xXxMasterProMegaTeamxXx wins · xXxMasterProMegaTeamxXx | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 5,929 | Nov 12, 16:00 UTC |
| BOOM Esports wins · BOOM Esports | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 2,621 | Nov 12, 12:00 UTC |
| Aurora Gaming wins · Aurora Gaming | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,391 | Nov 12, 16:00 UTC |
| F9 EICAR wins · F9 EICAR | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 2,368 | Nov 12, 16:00 UTC |
| Pixel Lumina wins · Pixel Lumina | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,451 | Nov 12, 16:00 UTC |
| Rojali wins · Rojali | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 550 | Nov 12, 12:00 UTC |
| Frankfurt Bahnhofsviertel wins · Frankfurt Bahnhofsviertel | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 153 | Nov 12, 18:00 UTC |
| GAS Esports wins · GAS Esports | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 151 | Nov 12, 14:30 UTC |
| Alter Ego x Kertanegara wins · Alter Ego x Kertanegara | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 13 | Nov 12, 14:30 UTC |
| CGN Esports wins · CGN Esports | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 6 | Nov 12, 18:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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