What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 43¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.00.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 45% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 43%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

Will Vance and Rubio run for President? on Kalshi

If JD Vance and Marco Rubio both announce presidential campaigns to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before January 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

Market says (typical open contract)

43%

Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

86% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
43¢ (now)	1.7¢	$2.00	44.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Rubio and Vance run for President? · JD Vance: Republican, Marco Rubio: Republican	43¢	43%	1.7¢	—	86%	16,395	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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