What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 1¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.46.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 1% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 1%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Who will be the head of state of Venezuela on date? on Kalshi

If Juan Guaidó officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: the Federal Register, official organizational website where role is housed, or company responsible for role, The Wall Street Journal, USAJobs.gov, ABC, person, NBC, The Washington Post, agency, Axios, The New York Times, CNN, official government website, Fox News, Politico, MSNBC, Bloomberg News, the Associated Press, CBS, Reuters.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 18 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

2% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
1¢ (now)	0.1¢	$3.47	1.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026? · Delcy Rodríguez	9¢	9%	0.6¢	—	18%	1,656,103	Dec 31, 14:59 UTC
Will Nicolás Maduro be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026? · Nicolás Maduro	92¢	92%	0.5¢	—	16%	1,226,387	Dec 31, 14:59 UTC
Will María Corina Machado be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026? · María Corina Machado	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	3%	1,192,508	Dec 31, 14:59 UTC
Will Edmundo González Urrutia be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026? · Edmundo González	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	454,566	Dec 31, 14:59 UTC
Will Marco Rubio be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026? · Marco Rubio	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	3%	385,606	Dec 31, 14:59 UTC
Will Donald Trump be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026? · Donald Trump	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	384,578	Dec 31, 14:59 UTC
Will Dan Caine be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026? · Dan Caine	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	191,035	Dec 31, 14:59 UTC
Will Evan Pettus be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026? · Evan Pettus	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	183,245	Dec 31, 14:59 UTC
Will Pete Hegseth be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026? · Pete Hegseth	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	136,406	Dec 31, 14:59 UTC
Will Frank Donovan be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026? · Frank Donovan	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	119,875	Dec 31, 14:59 UTC
Will Richard Grenell be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026? · Richard Grenell	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	90,118	Dec 31, 14:59 UTC
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026? · Diosdado Cabello Rondón	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	88,612	Dec 31, 14:59 UTC
Will Stephen Miller be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026? · Stephen Miller	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	77,042	Dec 31, 14:59 UTC
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026? · Vladimir Padrino López	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	71,579	Dec 31, 14:59 UTC
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026? · Jorge Rodríguez	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	49,851	Dec 31, 14:59 UTC
Will Dinorah Figuera be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026? · Dinorah Figuera	1¢	1%	0.0¢	—	1%	23,857	Dec 31, 14:59 UTC
Will Juan Guaidó be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026? · Juan Guaidó	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	8,479	Dec 31, 14:59 UTC
Will Miguel Rodríguez Torres be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026? · Miguel Rodríguez Torres	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	2,653	Dec 31, 14:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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