What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 8¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.22.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 9% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 8%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Entertainment

WHERE WILL DRAKE PERFORM THIS YEAR? on Kalshi

If Drake performs at Wembley Stadium in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Deadline, ABC, The Source Agencies are, Associated Press, <person>, in hierarchical order, official social media accounts of confirmed performers at <venue> in the same <time period> as <person>, Fox, Variety, Entertainment Weekly, CBS, social media accounts of event organizers at <venue>, NBC, Rolling Stone, the official broadcaster of the event at <venue>, CNN, social media accounts, official <venue> website, Billboard, Reuters, The Hollywood Reporter, the official website.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

16% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
8¢ (now)	0.5¢	$3.22	8.5%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Drake perform at Madison Square Garden 2026? · Madison Square Garden	18¢	18%	1.1¢	—	37%	2,302	Jan 08, 15:00 UTC
Will Drake perform at MetLife Stadium 2026? · MetLife Stadium	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	2,009	Jan 08, 15:00 UTC
Will Drake perform at SoFi Stadium 2026? · SoFi Stadium	11¢	11%	0.7¢	—	22%	1,379	Jan 08, 15:00 UTC
Will Drake perform at Mercedes-Benz Stadium 2026? · Mercedes-Benz Stadium	12¢	12%	0.8¢	—	25%	991	Jan 08, 15:00 UTC
Will Drake perform at Soldier Field 2026? · Soldier Field	7¢	7%	0.5¢	—	14%	590	Jan 08, 15:00 UTC
Will Drake perform at AT&T Stadium 2026? · AT&T Stadium	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	411	Jan 08, 15:00 UTC
Will Drake perform at Hard Rock Stadium 2026? · Hard Rock Stadium	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	157	Jan 08, 15:00 UTC
Will Drake perform at Rogers Centre 2026? · Rogers Centre	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	16%	137	Jan 08, 15:00 UTC
Will Drake perform at Wembley Stadium 2026? · Wembley Stadium	7¢	7%	0.5¢	—	14%	8	Jan 08, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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