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WHERE WILL YE PERFORM THIS YEAR on Kalshi
If Kanye West / Ye performs at Silesian Stadium between February 20, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Deadline, ABC, The Source Agencies are, Associated Press, <person>, in hierarchical order, official social media accounts of confirmed performers at <venue> in the same <time period> as <person>, Fox, Variety, Entertainment Weekly, CBS, social media accounts of event organizers at <venue>, NBC, Rolling Stone, the official broadcaster of the event at <venue>, CNN, social media accounts, official <venue> website, Billboard, Reuters, The Hollywood Reporter, the official website.
Market says (typical open contract)
5%
Median YES price across 19 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
9% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.33 | 5.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kanye West / Ye perform at Madison Square Garden (MSG) between February 20, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET? · Madison Square Garden (MSG) | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 8,089 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kanye West / Ye perform at AT&T Stadium between February 20, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET? · AT&T Stadium | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 7,080 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kanye West / Ye perform at Allegiant Stadium between February 20, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET? · Allegiant Stadium | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 6,111 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kanye West / Ye perform at MetLife Stadium between February 20, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET? · MetLife Stadium | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 4,177 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kanye West / Ye perform at Hard Rock Stadium between February 20, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET? · Hard Rock Stadium | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 3,046 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kanye West / Ye perform at Silesian Stadium between February 20, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET? · Silesian Stadium | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1,447 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kanye West / Ye perform at Mercedes-Benz Stadium between February 20, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET? · Mercedes-Benz Stadium | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 771 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kanye West / Ye perform at Gillette Stadium between February 20, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET? · Gillette Stadium | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 761 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kanye West / Ye perform at Michigan Stadium between February 20, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET? · Michigan Stadium | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 375 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kanye West / Ye perform at Sanford Stadium between February 20, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET? · Sanford Stadium | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 68 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kanye West / Ye perform at Tiger Stadium between February 20, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET? · Tiger Stadium | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 62 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kanye West / Ye perform at Lumen Field between February 20, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET? · Lumen Field | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 60 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kanye West / Ye perform at Ohio Stadium between February 20, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET? · Ohio Stadium | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 32 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kanye West / Ye perform at Stade Velodrome between February 20, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET? · Stade Velodrome | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kanye West / Ye perform at Neyland Stadium between February 20, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET? · Neyland Stadium | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kanye West / Ye perform at Kyle Field between February 20, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET? · Kyle Field | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kanye West / Ye perform at Cotton Bowl Stadium between February 20, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET? · Cotton Bowl Stadium | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kanye West / Ye perform at Bryant-Denny Stadium between February 20, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET? · Bryant-Denny Stadium | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kanye West / Ye perform at Beaver Stadium between February 20, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET? · Beaver Stadium | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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