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Trump vetoes on Kalshi
If President Trump vetoes at least 8 bills or resolutions sent by Congress before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: White House, United States Congress, The New York Times.
Market says (typical open contract)
38%
Median YES price across 15 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
76% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 38¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $2.17 | 39.6% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump veto at least 1 bill before Jan 1, 2027? · At least 1 | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 24,884 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump veto at least 4 bills before Jan 1, 2027? · At least 4 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 6,014 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump veto at least 3 bills before Jan 1, 2027? · At least 3 | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 5,632 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump veto at least 2 bills before Jan 1, 2027? · At least 2 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 5,037 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump veto at least 5 bills before Jan 1, 2027? · At least 5 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 1,557 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump veto at least 30 bills before Jan 1, 2028? · At least 30 | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 1,248 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump veto at least 8 bills before Jan 1, 2028? · At least 8 | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 1,156 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump veto at least 15 bills before Jan 1, 2028? · At least 15 | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 235 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump veto at least 10 bills before Jan 1, 2028? · At least 10 | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 84 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump veto at least 4 bills before Jan 1, 2028? · At least 4 | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 42 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump veto at least 2 bills before Jan 1, 2028? · At least 2 | 85¢ | 85% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 23 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump veto at least 12 bills before Jan 1, 2028? · At least 12 | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 19 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump veto at least 20 bills before Jan 1, 2028? · At least 20 | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 7 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump veto at least 25 bills before Jan 1, 2028? · At least 25 | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 6 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump veto at least 6 bills before Jan 1, 2028? · At least 6 | 73¢ | 73% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 1 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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