Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Victoria parliamentary election: 3rd place on Kalshi
If the third-most total seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly are held by Victorian Socialists following the 2026 Victorian state election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Victorian Electoral Commission.
Market says (typical open contract)
14%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
29% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14¢ (now) | 0.8¢ | $3.01 | 14.8% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Nationals hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election? · Nationals | 14¢ | 14% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 5,376 | Nov 28, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the Greens hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election? · Greens | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 4,506 | Nov 28, 04:59 UTC |
| Will One Nation hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election? · One Nation | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 4,070 | Nov 28, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Victorian Socialists hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election? · Victorian Socialists | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,570 | Nov 28, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Liberal hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election? · Liberal | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,070 | Nov 28, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Labor hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election? · Labor | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 203 | Nov 28, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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