Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Vilnius mayoral election winner on Kalshi
If Vytautas Sinica wins the 2027 Vilnius mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Central Electoral Commission of Lithuania.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
8% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Vytautas Sinica win the 2027 Vilnius mayoral election? · Vytautas Sinica | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Mar 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Vytautas Mitalas win the 2027 Vilnius mayoral election? · Vytautas Mitalas | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Mar 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Valdas Benkunskas win the 2027 Vilnius mayoral election? · Valdas Benkunskas | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 0 | Mar 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Simonas Gentvilas win the 2027 Vilnius mayoral election? · Simonas Gentvilas | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Mar 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Artūras Zuokas win the 2027 Vilnius mayoral election? · Artūras Zuokas | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 0 | Mar 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Aleksandras Nemunaitis win the 2027 Vilnius mayoral election? · Aleksandras Nemunaitis | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Mar 06, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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