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France presidential election first-round vote share on Kalshi
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the first round of the next French presidential election is 24% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Conseil constitutionnel.
Market says (typical open contract)
55%
Median YES price across 17 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
90% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 55¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.57 | 56.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon receive at least 24% of the popular vote in the first round of the next French presidential election? · At least 24% | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Apr 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon receive at least 22% of the popular vote in the first round of the next French presidential election? · At least 22% | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Apr 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the first round of the next French presidential election? · At least 20% | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 0 | Apr 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon receive at least 18% of the popular vote in the first round of the next French presidential election? · At least 18% | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 0 | Apr 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon receive at least 16% of the popular vote in the first round of the next French presidential election? · At least 16% | 71¢ | 71% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 0 | Apr 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon receive at least 14% of the popular vote in the first round of the next French presidential election? · At least 14% | 83¢ | 83% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 0 | Apr 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon receive at least 12% of the popular vote in the first round of the next French presidential election? · At least 12% | 91¢ | 91% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Apr 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon receive at least 10% of the popular vote in the first round of the next French presidential election? · At least 10% | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Apr 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Marine Le Pen receive at least 42% of the popular vote in the first round of the next French presidential election? · At least 42% | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Apr 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Marine Le Pen receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the first round of the next French presidential election? · At least 40% | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Apr 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Marine Le Pen receive at least 38% of the popular vote in the first round of the next French presidential election? · At least 38% | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 0 | Apr 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Marine Le Pen receive at least 36% of the popular vote in the first round of the next French presidential election? · At least 36% | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 0 | Apr 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Marine Le Pen receive at least 34% of the popular vote in the first round of the next French presidential election? · At least 34% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Apr 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Marine Le Pen receive at least 32% of the popular vote in the first round of the next French presidential election? · At least 32% | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Apr 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Marine Le Pen receive at least 30% of the popular vote in the first round of the next French presidential election? · At least 30% | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 0 | Apr 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Marine Le Pen receive at least 28% of the popular vote in the first round of the next French presidential election? · At least 28% | 85¢ | 85% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Apr 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Marine Le Pen receive at least 25% of the popular vote in the first round of the next French presidential election? · At least 25% | 89¢ | 89% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Apr 17, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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