Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Republican VP nom on Kalshi
If Kim Reynolds accepts the nomination for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Republican Party, Democratic Party.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 24 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
3% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party? · Marco Rubio | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 370,257 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will J.D. Vance be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party? · J.D. Vance | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 244,631 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Donald J. Trump be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party? · Donald J. Trump | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 205,120 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Erika Kirk be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party? · Erika Kirk | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 169,766 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Glenn Youngkin be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party? · Glenn Youngkin | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 141,816 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party? · Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 100,287 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Donald J. Trump Jr. be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party? · Donald J. Trump Jr. | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 90,525 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Elon Musk be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party? · Elon Musk | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 76,734 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ron DeSantis be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party? · Ron DeSantis | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 74,103 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Katie Britt be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party? · Katie Britt | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 61,642 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Nikki Haley be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party? · Nikki Haley | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 55,035 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tulsi Gabbard be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party? · Tulsi Gabbard | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 50,856 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Josh Hawley be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party? · Josh Hawley | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 50,485 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Elise Stefanik be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party? · Elise Stefanik | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 48,109 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Byron Donalds be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party? · Byron Donalds | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 46,225 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Brian Kemp be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party? · Brian Kemp | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 25,148 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ted Cruz be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party? · Ted Cruz | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 24,924 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party? · Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 19,763 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Matt Gaetz be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party? · Matt Gaetz | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 12,328 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will John Thune be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party? · John Thune | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 9,696 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Greg Abbott be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party? · Greg Abbott | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 8,785 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Eric Schmitt be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party? · Eric Schmitt | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 6,740 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tim Scott be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party? · Tim Scott | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 6,206 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kim Reynolds be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party? · Kim Reynolds | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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