What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 6¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.31.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 6% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 6%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Economics

Washington aerospace manufacturing employment on Kalshi

If BLS reports Washington’s annual-average employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing for 2026 is above 92,000 jobs, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 13 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

11% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
6¢ (now)	0.4¢	$3.29	6.4%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Washington’s annual-average employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing for 2026 be above 83,000 jobs? · Above 83,000 jobs	90¢	90%	0.7¢	—	21%	106,780	Apr 30, 15:29 UTC
Will Washington’s annual-average employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing for 2026 be above 87,000 jobs? · Above 87,000 jobs	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	96,754	Apr 30, 15:29 UTC
Will Washington’s annual-average employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing for 2026 be above 82,000 jobs? · Above 82,000 jobs	96¢	96%	0.2¢	—	7%	80,894	Apr 30, 15:29 UTC
Will Washington’s annual-average employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing for 2026 be above 86,000 jobs? · Above 86,000 jobs	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	79,650	Apr 30, 15:29 UTC
Will Washington’s annual-average employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing for 2026 be above 84,000 jobs? · Above 84,000 jobs	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	97%	78,862	Apr 30, 15:29 UTC
Will Washington’s annual-average employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing for 2026 be above 90,000 jobs? · Above 90,000 jobs	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	76,175	Apr 30, 15:29 UTC
Will Washington’s annual-average employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing for 2026 be above 89,000 jobs? · Above 89,000 jobs	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	71,220	Apr 30, 15:29 UTC
Will Washington’s annual-average employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing for 2026 be above 85,000 jobs? · Above 85,000 jobs	12¢	12%	0.8¢	—	25%	66,830	Apr 30, 15:29 UTC
Will Washington’s annual-average employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing for 2026 be above 81,000 jobs? · Above 81,000 jobs	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	5%	37,467	Apr 30, 15:29 UTC
Will Washington’s annual-average employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing for 2026 be above 88,000 jobs? · Above 88,000 jobs	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	19,166	Apr 30, 15:29 UTC
Will Washington’s annual-average employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing for 2026 be above 91,000 jobs? · Above 91,000 jobs	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	12,205	Apr 30, 15:29 UTC
Will Washington’s annual-average employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing for 2026 be above 80,000 jobs? · Above 80,000 jobs	98¢	98%	0.1¢	—	3%	6,801	Apr 30, 15:29 UTC
Will Washington’s annual-average employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing for 2026 be above 92,000 jobs? · Above 92,000 jobs	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	280	Apr 30, 15:29 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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