What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 10¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.17.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 10% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 10%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Financials

Waymo IPO on Kalshi

If Waymo confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: the New York Times, ABC, Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, CNBC, Reuters, BBC.

Market says (typical open contract)

10%

Median YES price across 14 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

19% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
10¢ (now)	0.6¢	$3.15	10.6%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
When will Waymo officially announce an IPO? · Before Jan 1, 2028	23¢	23%	1.2¢	—	46%	3,232	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
When will Waymo officially announce an IPO? · Before Jul 1, 2027	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	1,050	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
When will Waymo officially announce an IPO? · Before Dec 1, 2027	23¢	23%	1.2¢	—	46%	623	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
When will Waymo officially announce an IPO? · Before Oct 1, 2027	17¢	17%	1.0¢	—	34%	414	Oct 01, 03:59 UTC
When will Waymo officially announce an IPO? · Before Dec 1, 2026	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	335	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
When will Waymo officially announce an IPO? · Before Mar 1, 2027	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	327	Mar 01, 04:59 UTC
When will Waymo officially announce an IPO? · Before Feb 1, 2027	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	313	Feb 01, 04:59 UTC
When will Waymo officially announce an IPO? · Before Nov 1, 2027	18¢	18%	1.1¢	—	37%	312	Nov 01, 03:59 UTC
When will Waymo officially announce an IPO? · Before Sep 1, 2027	14¢	14%	0.9¢	—	29%	239	Sep 01, 03:59 UTC
When will Waymo officially announce an IPO? · Before Jan 1, 2027	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	225	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
When will Waymo officially announce an IPO? · Before Apr 1, 2027	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	96	Apr 01, 03:59 UTC
When will Waymo officially announce an IPO? · Before Aug 1, 2027	12¢	12%	0.8¢	—	25%	70	Aug 01, 03:59 UTC
When will Waymo officially announce an IPO? · Before Jun 1, 2027	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	19%	22	Jun 01, 03:59 UTC
When will Waymo officially announce an IPO? · Before May 1, 2027	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	15%	5	May 01, 03:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.