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World Soccer Cup Host Country on Kalshi
If USA is announced as a host for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup and confirmed by any of the Source Agencies, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Semafor, ABC, Bloomberg, NBC, The Washington Post, Associated Press, The Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Reuters, The Information, Politico, Axios, MSNBC, CNN, the New York Times, CBS.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $3.25 | 7.5% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will USA be announced as a host for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup? · USA | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 11,359 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will China be announced as a host for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup? · China | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 5,006 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Argentina, Uruguay, Chile or Paraguay be announced as hosts for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Argentina, Uruguay, Chile or Paraguay | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 1,695 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Australia or New Zealand be announced as hosts for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Australia or New Zealand | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 1,234 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Cambodia be announced as a host for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Cambodia | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 635 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Egypt be announced as a host for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Egypt | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 625 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will France, Belgium or the Netherlands be announced as hosts for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup? · France, Belgium or the Netherlands | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 572 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Panama or Costa Rica be announced as hosts for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Panama or Costa Rica | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 544 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will United Kingdom or Ireland be announced as hosts for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup? · United Kingdom or Ireland | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 344 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Germany be announced as a host for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Germany | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 185 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Italy be announced as a host for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Italy | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 109 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Brazil, Colombia or Peru be announced as hosts for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Brazil, Colombia or Peru | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 75 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Switzerland or Austria be announced as hosts for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Switzerland or Austria | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 64 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Greece or Turkey be announced as hosts for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Greece or Turkey | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 63 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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