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Wisconsin manufacturing employment on Kalshi
If the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that Wisconsin's annual-average manufacturing employment for 2026 is above 462,500 jobs, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Market says (typical open contract)
74%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
51% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 74¢ (now) | 1.3¢ | $0.91 | 75.3% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Wisconsin's annual-average manufacturing employment for 2026 be above 447,500 jobs? · Above 447,500 jobs | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 82,279 | Apr 30, 15:29 UTC |
| Will Wisconsin's annual-average manufacturing employment for 2026 be above 462,500 jobs? · Above 462,500 jobs | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 54,318 | Apr 30, 15:29 UTC |
| Will Wisconsin's annual-average manufacturing employment for 2026 be above 460,000 jobs? · Above 460,000 jobs | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 49,587 | Apr 30, 15:29 UTC |
| Will Wisconsin's annual-average manufacturing employment for 2026 be above 457,500 jobs? · Above 457,500 jobs | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 33,454 | Apr 30, 15:29 UTC |
| Will Wisconsin's annual-average manufacturing employment for 2026 be above 455,000 jobs? · Above 455,000 jobs | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 19,248 | Apr 30, 15:29 UTC |
| Will Wisconsin's annual-average manufacturing employment for 2026 be above 452,500 jobs? · Above 452,500 jobs | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 12,933 | Apr 30, 15:29 UTC |
| Will Wisconsin's annual-average manufacturing employment for 2026 be above 450,000 jobs? · Above 450,000 jobs | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 8,575 | Apr 30, 15:29 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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