What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 14¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.01.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 15% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 14%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

U.S. withdrawing from international organizations on Kalshi

If the United States completely withdraws from United Nations before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, White House, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, United States Congress, The Information, Bloomberg, CBS, The New York Times, The Washington Post, AP, Axios, CNN, Reuters, NBC, Politico.

Market says (typical open contract)

14%

Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

28% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
14¢ (now)	0.8¢	$3.01	14.8%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the U.S. withdraw from United Nations before Jan 20, 2029? · United Nations	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	24%	9,113	Jan 20, 15:00 UTC
Will the U.S. withdraw from World Trade Organization before Jan 20, 2029? · World Trade Organization	26¢	26%	1.3¢	—	51%	5,536	Jan 20, 15:00 UTC
Will the U.S. withdraw from G7 before Jan 20, 2029? · G7	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	1,537	Jan 20, 15:00 UTC
Will the U.S. withdraw from Interpol before Jan 20, 2029? · Interpol	14¢	14%	0.8¢	—	28%	1,373	Jan 20, 15:00 UTC
Will the U.S. withdraw from International Atomic Energy Agency before Jan 20, 2029? · International Atomic Energy Agency	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	1,226	Jan 20, 15:00 UTC
Will the U.S. withdraw from G20 before Jan 20, 2029? · G20	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	1,189	Jan 20, 15:00 UTC
Will the U.S. withdraw from OECD before Jan 20, 2029? · OECD	19¢	19%	1.1¢	—	38%	1,055	Jan 20, 15:00 UTC
Will the U.S. withdraw from World Bank Group before Jan 20, 2029? · World Bank Group	16¢	16%	1.0¢	—	33%	769	Jan 20, 15:00 UTC
Will the U.S. withdraw from Inter-American Development Bank before Jan 20, 2029? · Inter-American Development Bank	11¢	11%	0.7¢	—	21%	493	Jan 20, 15:00 UTC
Will the U.S. withdraw from International Monetary Fund before Jan 20, 2029? · International Monetary Fund	16¢	16%	0.9¢	—	31%	264	Jan 20, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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