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March Tournament (W) on Kalshi
If West Virginia is the 2026-27 Division 1 Women's College Basketball National Champion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, The Wall Street Journal, Fox Sports, AP, Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA.
Market says (typical open contract)
0%
Median YES price across 35 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
1% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will USC win the Women's College Basketball National Championship? · USC | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 24,515 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will South Carolina win the Women's College Basketball National Championship? · South Carolina | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 9,870 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will LSU win the Women's College Basketball National Championship? · LSU | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 6,471 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will UConn win the Women's College Basketball National Championship? · UConn | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 4,663 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Texas Tech win the Women's College Basketball National Championship? · Texas Tech | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 4,586 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Duke win the Women's College Basketball National Championship? · Duke | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 4,539 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will UCLA win the Women's College Basketball National Championship? · UCLA | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 4,405 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will TCU win the Women's College Basketball National Championship? · TCU | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 3,794 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Oklahoma win the Women's College Basketball National Championship? · Oklahoma | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 3,548 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ole Miss win the Women's College Basketball National Championship? · Ole Miss | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,523 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Michigan win the Women's College Basketball National Championship? · Michigan | 7¢ | 7% | 0.4¢ | — | 14% | 2,513 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Notre Dame win the Women's College Basketball National Championship? · Notre Dame | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,863 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Minnesota win the Women's College Basketball National Championship? · Minnesota | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,843 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Kentucky win the Women's College Basketball National Championship? · Kentucky | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1,822 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Louisville win the Women's College Basketball National Championship? · Louisville | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 1,635 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Nebraska win the Women's College Basketball National Championship? · Nebraska | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,529 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Oregon win the Women's College Basketball National Championship? · Oregon | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 1,460 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Texas win the Women's College Basketball National Championship? · Texas | 5¢ | 5% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 1,168 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Iowa win the Women's College Basketball National Championship? · Iowa | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 1,118 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Villanova win the Women's College Basketball National Championship? · Villanova | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 916 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Washington win the Women's College Basketball National Championship? · Washington | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 716 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will North Carolina win the Women's College Basketball National Championship? · North Carolina | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 615 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Iowa St. win the Women's College Basketball National Championship? · Iowa St. | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 514 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Michigan St. win the Women's College Basketball National Championship? · Michigan St. | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 487 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will SMU win the Women's College Basketball National Championship? · SMU | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 467 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Stanford win the Women's College Basketball National Championship? · Stanford | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 366 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Baylor win the Women's College Basketball National Championship? · Baylor | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 269 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tennessee win the Women's College Basketball National Championship? · Tennessee | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 265 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will West Virginia win the Women's College Basketball National Championship? · West Virginia | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 257 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Alabama win the Women's College Basketball National Championship? · Alabama | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 114 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will North Carolina St. win the Women's College Basketball National Championship? · North Carolina St. | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 20 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Utah win the Women's College Basketball National Championship? · Utah | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 0 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ohio St. win the Women's College Basketball National Championship? · Ohio St. | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Maryland win the Women's College Basketball National Championship? · Maryland | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Grand Canyon win the Women's College Basketball National Championship? · Grand Canyon | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 0 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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