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WNBA Playoff Qualifiers on Kalshi
If Washington qualifies for the Women's Pro Basketball Playoffs in the 2027 season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
48%
Median YES price across 15 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
95% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 47¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.86 | 48.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 Women's Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers: Washington · Washington | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Women's Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers: Toronto · Toronto | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Women's Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers: Seattle · Seattle | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Women's Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers: Phoenix · Phoenix | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Women's Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers: Portland · Portland | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Women's Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers: New York · New York | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Women's Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers: Minnesota · Minnesota | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Women's Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers: Las Vegas · Las Vegas | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Women's Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers: Los Angeles · Los Angeles | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Women's Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers: Indiana · Indiana | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Women's Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers: Houston · Houston | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Women's Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers: Golden State · Golden State | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Women's Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers: Dallas · Dallas | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Women's Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers: Chicago · Chicago | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Women's Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers: Atlanta · Atlanta | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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