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Women's Tournament Winner on Kalshi
If Marta Kostyuk wins the 2026 WTA Finals Women's Singles professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, WTA, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
16%
Median YES price across 109 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
31% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15¢ (now) | 0.9¢ | $2.98 | 15.9% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTA Finals Women's Singles: Elena Rybakina wins · Elena Rybakina | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 9,344 | Nov 30, 04:59 UTC |
| WTA Finals Women's Singles: Coco Gauff wins · Coco Gauff | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 4,413 | Nov 30, 04:59 UTC |
| WTA Finals Women's Singles: Aryna Sabalenka wins · Aryna Sabalenka | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 4,407 | Nov 30, 04:59 UTC |
| Australian Open Women's Singles: Aryna Sabalenka wins · Aryna Sabalenka | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 3,886 | Feb 15, 12:00 UTC |
| WTA Finals Women's Singles: Mirra Andreeva wins · Mirra Andreeva | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 3,379 | Nov 30, 04:59 UTC |
| Australian Open Women's Singles: Elena Rybakina wins · Elena Rybakina | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 3,027 | Feb 15, 12:00 UTC |
| French Open Women's Singles: Elena Rybakina wins · Elena Rybakina | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 1,677 | Jun 29, 02:00 UTC |
| French Open Women's Singles: Aryna Sabalenka wins · Aryna Sabalenka | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 1,394 | Jun 29, 02:00 UTC |
| WTA Finals Women's Singles: Linda Noskova wins · Linda Noskova | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 1,272 | Nov 30, 04:59 UTC |
| WTA Finals Women's Singles: Karolina Muchova wins · Karolina Muchova | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 1,187 | Nov 30, 04:59 UTC |
| Australian Open Women's Singles: Alexandra Eala wins · Alexandra Eala | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 1,115 | Feb 15, 12:00 UTC |
| Australian Open Women's Singles: Coco Gauff wins · Coco Gauff | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 1,025 | Feb 15, 12:00 UTC |
| WTA Finals Women's Singles: Jessica Pegula wins · Jessica Pegula | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 954 | Nov 30, 04:59 UTC |
| WTA Finals Women's Singles: Marta Kostyuk wins · Marta Kostyuk | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 707 | Nov 30, 04:59 UTC |
| WTA Finals Women's Singles: Elina Svitolina wins · Elina Svitolina | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 412 | Nov 30, 04:59 UTC |
| Australian Open Women's Singles: Mirra Andreeva wins · Mirra Andreeva | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 304 | Feb 15, 12:00 UTC |
| US Open Women's Singles: Coco Gauff wins · Coco Gauff | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 287 | Oct 05, 02:00 UTC |
| US Open Women's Singles: Alexandra Eala wins · Alexandra Eala | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 260 | Oct 05, 02:00 UTC |
| French Open Women's Singles: Alexandra Eala wins · Alexandra Eala | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 243 | Jun 29, 02:00 UTC |
| US Open Women's Singles: Elena Rybakina wins · Elena Rybakina | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 236 | Oct 05, 02:00 UTC |
| Australian Open Women's Singles: Diana Shnaider wins · Diana Shnaider | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 139 | Feb 15, 12:00 UTC |
| French Open Women's Singles: Diana Shnaider wins · Diana Shnaider | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 134 | Jun 29, 02:00 UTC |
| Australian Open Women's Singles: Jessica Pegula wins · Jessica Pegula | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 126 | Feb 15, 12:00 UTC |
| Australian Open Women's Singles: Iga Swiatek wins · Iga Swiatek | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 118 | Feb 15, 12:00 UTC |
| French Open Women's Singles: Naomi Osaka wins · Naomi Osaka | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 100 | Jun 29, 02:00 UTC |
| Australian Open Women's Singles: Linda Noskova wins · Linda Noskova | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 81 | Feb 15, 12:00 UTC |
| Australian Open Women's Singles: Belinda Bencic wins · Belinda Bencic | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 80 | Feb 15, 12:00 UTC |
| Australian Open Women's Singles: Ekaterina Alexandrova wins · Ekaterina Alexandrova | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 80 | Feb 15, 12:00 UTC |
| Australian Open Women's Singles: Amanda Anisimova wins · Amanda Anisimova | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 59 | Feb 15, 12:00 UTC |
| US Open Women's Singles: Aryna Sabalenka wins · Aryna Sabalenka | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 59 | Oct 05, 02:00 UTC |
| French Open Women's Singles: Ekaterina Alexandrova wins · Ekaterina Alexandrova | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 54 | Jun 29, 02:00 UTC |
| French Open Women's Singles: Mirra Andreeva wins · Mirra Andreeva | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 47 | Jun 29, 02:00 UTC |
| Wimbledon Women's Singles: Aryna Sabalenka wins · Aryna Sabalenka | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 46 | Aug 03, 02:00 UTC |
| Australian Open Women's Singles: Jasmine Paolini wins · Jasmine Paolini | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 45 | Feb 15, 12:00 UTC |
| Australian Open Women's Singles: Sorana Cirstea wins · Sorana Cirstea | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 42 | Feb 15, 12:00 UTC |
| French Open Women's Singles: Iga Swiatek wins · Iga Swiatek | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 24 | Jun 29, 02:00 UTC |
| Australian Open Women's Singles: Karolina Muchova wins · Karolina Muchova | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 21 | Feb 15, 12:00 UTC |
| Australian Open Women's Singles: Victoria Mboko wins · Victoria Mboko | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 20 | Feb 15, 12:00 UTC |
| Australian Open Women's Singles: Elina Svitolina wins · Elina Svitolina | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 19 | Feb 15, 12:00 UTC |
| Australian Open Women's Singles: Marta Kostyuk wins · Marta Kostyuk | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 19 | Feb 15, 12:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 109 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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