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WTA Doubles Tennis Match on Kalshi
If Sara Errani / Jasmine Paolini wins the Bucsa / Melichar-Martinez vs Errani / Paolini professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Finals Women Doubles Group after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: WTA.
Market says (typical open contract)
48%
Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
97% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 48¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.82 | 49.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sara Errani / Jasmine Paolini wins · Sara Errani / Jasmine Paolini | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 28 | Nov 24, 23:30 UTC |
| Ellen Perez / Demi Schuurs wins · Ellen Perez / Demi Schuurs | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 9 | Nov 24, 22:20 UTC |
| Cristina Bucsa / Nicole Melichar-Martinez wins · Cristina Bucsa / Nicole Melichar-Martinez | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 0 | Nov 24, 23:30 UTC |
| Katerina Siniakova / Taylor Townsend wins · Katerina Siniakova / Taylor Townsend | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 0 | Nov 24, 22:20 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.