Markets › Kalshi › Commodities
WTI oil on day on Kalshi
If the daily settlement price for WTI crude oil(December 2026 contract) on November 12, 2026 is above 93.99 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ICE.
Market says (typical open contract)
20%
Median YES price across 60 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
39% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20¢ (now) | 1.1¢ | $2.80 | 21.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 91.49 USD/Bbl on Nov 10, 2026? · Above $91.49 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 7,260 | Nov 10, 19:30 UTC |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 93.49 USD/Bbl on Nov 10, 2026? · Above $93.49 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 6,544 | Nov 10, 19:30 UTC |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 83.49 USD/Bbl on Nov 10, 2026? · Above $83.49 | 83¢ | 83% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 3,370 | Nov 10, 19:30 UTC |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 88.49 USD/Bbl on Nov 10, 2026? · Above $88.49 | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 3,345 | Nov 10, 19:30 UTC |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 90.99 USD/Bbl on Nov 10, 2026? · Above $90.99 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 2,926 | Nov 10, 19:30 UTC |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 85.49 USD/Bbl on Nov 10, 2026? · Above $85.49 | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 2,623 | Nov 10, 19:30 UTC |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 91.99 USD/Bbl on Nov 10, 2026? · Above $91.99 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 2,607 | Nov 10, 19:30 UTC |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 92.49 USD/Bbl on Nov 10, 2026? · Above $92.49 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,533 | Nov 10, 19:30 UTC |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 89.49 USD/Bbl on Nov 10, 2026? · Above $89.49 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 2,406 | Nov 10, 19:30 UTC |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 86.99 USD/Bbl on Nov 10, 2026? · Above $86.99 | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 2,330 | Nov 10, 19:30 UTC |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 90.49 USD/Bbl on Nov 10, 2026? · Above $90.49 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 2,181 | Nov 10, 19:30 UTC |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 89.99 USD/Bbl on Nov 10, 2026? · Above $89.99 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 2,163 | Nov 10, 19:30 UTC |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 87.99 USD/Bbl on Nov 10, 2026? · Above $87.99 | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 2,112 | Nov 10, 19:30 UTC |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 87.49 USD/Bbl on Nov 10, 2026? · Above $87.49 | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 1,802 | Nov 10, 19:30 UTC |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 85.99 USD/Bbl on Nov 10, 2026? · Above $85.99 | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 1,642 | Nov 10, 19:30 UTC |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 83.99 USD/Bbl on Nov 10, 2026? · Above $83.99 | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 1,587 | Nov 10, 19:30 UTC |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 84.49 USD/Bbl on Nov 10, 2026? · Above $84.49 | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 1,469 | Nov 10, 19:30 UTC |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 88.99 USD/Bbl on Nov 10, 2026? · Above $88.99 | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 1,367 | Nov 10, 19:30 UTC |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 93.99 USD/Bbl on Nov 10, 2026? · Above $93.99 | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,180 | Nov 10, 19:30 UTC |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 86.49 USD/Bbl on Nov 10, 2026? · Above $86.49 | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 1,108 | Nov 10, 19:30 UTC |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 84.99 USD/Bbl on Nov 10, 2026? · Above $84.99 | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 919 | Nov 10, 19:30 UTC |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 94.49 USD/Bbl on Nov 10, 2026? · Above $94.49 | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 748 | Nov 10, 19:30 UTC |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 92.99 USD/Bbl on Nov 10, 2026? · Above $92.99 | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 231 | Nov 10, 19:30 UTC |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 90.99 USD/Bbl on Nov 12, 2026? · Above $90.99 | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 200 | Nov 12, 19:30 UTC |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 94.99 USD/Bbl on Nov 10, 2026? · Above $94.99 | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 192 | Nov 10, 19:30 UTC |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 97.99 USD/Bbl on Nov 10, 2026? · Above $97.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 52 | Nov 10, 19:30 UTC |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 86.99 USD/Bbl on Nov 12, 2026? · Above $86.99 | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 23 | Nov 12, 19:30 UTC |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 96.49 USD/Bbl on Nov 10, 2026? · Above $96.49 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1 | Nov 10, 19:30 UTC |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 97.49 USD/Bbl on Nov 10, 2026? · Above $97.49 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1 | Nov 10, 19:30 UTC |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 96.99 USD/Bbl on Nov 10, 2026? · Above $96.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1 | Nov 10, 19:30 UTC |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 95.99 USD/Bbl on Nov 10, 2026? · Above $95.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1 | Nov 10, 19:30 UTC |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 95.49 USD/Bbl on Nov 10, 2026? · Above $95.49 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1 | Nov 10, 19:30 UTC |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 93.99 USD/Bbl on Nov 12, 2026? · Above $93.99 | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Nov 12, 19:30 UTC |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 93.49 USD/Bbl on Nov 12, 2026? · Above $93.49 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 12, 19:30 UTC |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 92.99 USD/Bbl on Nov 12, 2026? · Above $92.99 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 12, 19:30 UTC |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 92.49 USD/Bbl on Nov 12, 2026? · Above $92.49 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 12, 19:30 UTC |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 91.99 USD/Bbl on Nov 12, 2026? · Above $91.99 | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 12, 19:30 UTC |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 91.49 USD/Bbl on Nov 12, 2026? · Above $91.49 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Nov 12, 19:30 UTC |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 90.49 USD/Bbl on Nov 12, 2026? · Above $90.49 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Nov 12, 19:30 UTC |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 89.99 USD/Bbl on Nov 12, 2026? · Above $89.99 | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 0 | Nov 12, 19:30 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 60 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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