What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 20¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.78.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 22% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 20%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Commodities

WTI Hourly on Kalshi

If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for WTI Oil on November 10, 2026 at 6:00 AM EST is above 81.59 USD/barrel, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Pyth - WTI.

Market says (typical open contract)

20%

Median YES price across 163 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

41% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
21¢ (now)	1.2¢	$2.77	22.2%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the WTI Oil close price be above 84.19 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $84.19	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	422	Nov 10, 10:00 UTC
Will the WTI Oil close price be above 84.09 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $84.09	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	362	Nov 10, 10:00 UTC
Will the WTI Oil close price be above 83.79 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $83.79	33¢	33%	1.5¢	—	66%	301	Nov 10, 10:00 UTC
Will the WTI Oil close price be above 83.99 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $83.99	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	15%	300	Nov 10, 10:00 UTC
Will the WTI Oil close price be above 83.89 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $83.89	20¢	20%	1.1¢	—	41%	236	Nov 10, 10:00 UTC
Will the WTI Oil close price be above 84.29 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $84.29	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	220	Nov 10, 10:00 UTC
Will the WTI Oil close price be above 83.59 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $83.59	74¢	74%	1.4¢	—	53%	212	Nov 10, 10:00 UTC
Will the WTI Oil close price be above 84.49 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $84.49	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	155	Nov 10, 10:00 UTC
Will the WTI Oil close price be above 83.69 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $83.69	56¢	56%	1.7¢	—	87%	153	Nov 10, 10:00 UTC
Will the WTI Oil close price be above 83.49 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $83.49	84¢	84%	1.0¢	—	33%	122	Nov 10, 10:00 UTC
Will the WTI Oil close price be above 83.39 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $83.39	94¢	94%	0.4¢	—	13%	112	Nov 10, 10:00 UTC
Will the WTI Oil close price be above 84.39 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $84.39	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	92	Nov 10, 10:00 UTC
Will the WTI Oil close price be above 84.59 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $84.59	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	66	Nov 10, 10:00 UTC
Will the WTI Oil close price be above 84.89 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $84.89	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	44	Nov 10, 10:00 UTC
Will the WTI Oil close price be above 85.09 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $85.09	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	20	Nov 10, 10:00 UTC
Will the WTI Oil close price be above 84.99 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $84.99	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	9	Nov 10, 10:00 UTC
Will the WTI Oil close price be above 85.19 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $85.19	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	2	Nov 10, 10:00 UTC
Will the WTI Oil close price be above 82.09 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $82.09	98¢	98%	0.1¢	—	4%	0	Nov 10, 10:00 UTC
Will the WTI Oil close price be above 82.19 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $82.19	98¢	98%	0.1¢	—	4%	0	Nov 10, 10:00 UTC
Will the WTI Oil close price be above 82.29 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $82.29	98¢	98%	0.1¢	—	4%	0	Nov 10, 10:00 UTC
Will the WTI Oil close price be above 82.39 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $82.39	98¢	98%	0.1¢	—	4%	0	Nov 10, 10:00 UTC
Will the WTI Oil close price be above 82.49 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $82.49	98¢	98%	0.1¢	—	4%	0	Nov 10, 10:00 UTC
Will the WTI Oil close price be above 82.59 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $82.59	98¢	98%	0.1¢	—	4%	0	Nov 10, 10:00 UTC
Will the WTI Oil close price be above 82.69 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $82.69	98¢	98%	0.1¢	—	4%	0	Nov 10, 10:00 UTC
Will the WTI Oil close price be above 82.79 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $82.79	98¢	98%	0.1¢	—	4%	0	Nov 10, 10:00 UTC
Will the WTI Oil close price be above 82.89 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $82.89	98¢	98%	0.1¢	—	4%	0	Nov 10, 10:00 UTC
Will the WTI Oil close price be above 82.99 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $82.99	95¢	95%	0.3¢	—	10%	0	Nov 10, 10:00 UTC
Will the WTI Oil close price be above 83.09 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $83.09	95¢	95%	0.3¢	—	10%	0	Nov 10, 10:00 UTC
Will the WTI Oil close price be above 83.19 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $83.19	92¢	92%	0.5¢	—	17%	0	Nov 10, 10:00 UTC
Will the WTI Oil close price be above 83.29 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $83.29	92¢	92%	0.5¢	—	16%	0	Nov 10, 10:00 UTC
Will the WTI Oil close price be above 84.69 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $84.69	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	0	Nov 10, 10:00 UTC
Will the WTI Oil close price be above 84.79 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $84.79	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	0	Nov 10, 10:00 UTC
Will the WTI Oil close price be above 85.29 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $85.29	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	0	Nov 10, 10:00 UTC
Will the WTI Oil close price be above 85.39 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $85.39	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	0	Nov 10, 10:00 UTC
Will the WTI Oil close price be above 85.79 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET? · Above $85.79	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	0	Nov 10, 11:00 UTC
Will the WTI Oil close price be above 85.89 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET? · Above $85.89	39¢	39%	1.7¢	—	78%	0	Nov 10, 11:00 UTC
Will the WTI Oil close price be above 85.99 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET? · Above $85.99	39¢	39%	1.7¢	—	78%	0	Nov 10, 11:00 UTC
Will the WTI Oil close price be above 85.49 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $85.49	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	0	Nov 10, 10:00 UTC
Will the WTI Oil close price be above 85.59 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $85.59	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	0	Nov 10, 10:00 UTC
Will the WTI Oil close price be above 85.69 USD/barrel on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $85.69	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	0	Nov 10, 10:00 UTC

Showing the 40 most traded of 163 open contracts.

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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