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West Virginia coal production on Kalshi
If EIA reports West Virginia’s total coal production for calendar year 2026 is above 84 million short tons, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Market says (typical open contract)
92%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
17% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
| 92¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $0.28 | 92.5% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will West Virginia’s total coal production for 2026 be above 80 million short tons? · Above 80 million short tons | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 39,500 | Apr 01, 15:29 UTC |
| Will West Virginia’s total coal production for 2026 be above 76 million short tons? · Above 76 million short tons | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 36,484 | Apr 01, 15:29 UTC |
| Will West Virginia’s total coal production for 2026 be above 82 million short tons? · Above 82 million short tons | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 30,455 | Apr 01, 15:29 UTC |
| Will West Virginia’s total coal production for 2026 be above 84 million short tons? · Above 84 million short tons | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 24,671 | Apr 01, 15:29 UTC |
| Will West Virginia’s total coal production for 2026 be above 78 million short tons? · Above 78 million short tons | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 20,091 | Apr 01, 15:29 UTC |
| Will West Virginia’s total coal production for 2026 be above 74 million short tons? · Above 74 million short tons | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 10,931 | Apr 01, 15:29 UTC |
| Will West Virginia’s total coal production for 2026 be above 72 million short tons? · Above 72 million short tons | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1,796 | Apr 01, 15:29 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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