What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 1¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.46.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 1% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 1%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Xi Jinping successor on Kalshi

If Zhao Leji is announced as the first new non-interim leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, Bloomberg News, The Information, CBS, NBC, The New York Times, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 14 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

2% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
1¢ (now)	0.1¢	$3.47	1.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Li Qiang become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045? · Li Qiang	13¢	13%	0.8¢	—	26%	15,721	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Chen Jining become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045? · Chen Jining	9¢	9%	0.6¢	—	17%	6,733	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Ding Xuexiang become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045? · Ding Xuexiang	16¢	16%	0.9¢	—	32%	4,805	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Li Xi become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045? · Li Xi	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	3,172	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Zhao Leji become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045? · Zhao Leji	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	2,960	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Yin Li become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045? · Yin Li	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	2,775	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Cai Qi become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045? · Cai Qi	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	1,879	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Zhang Guoqing become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045? · Zhang Guoqing	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	835	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Chen Min'er become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045? · Chen Min'er	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	729	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Ma Xingrui become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045? · Ma Xingrui	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	725	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Yin Yong become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045? · Yin Yong	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	641	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Wang Huning become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045? · Wang Huning	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	534	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Li Ganjie become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045? · Li Ganjie	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	498	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will He Lifeng become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045? · He Lifeng	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	475	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.