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Z.AI Vercel spend share on Kalshi
If the Z.AI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs for Nov 12, 2026 is above 7.4%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Vercel AI Gateway Leaderboards - Labs.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 18 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z.AI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 5.8% · Above 5.8% | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 49 | Nov 11, 04:59 UTC |
| Z.AI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 9.3% · Above 9.3% | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 1 | Nov 11, 04:59 UTC |
| Z.AI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 7.4% · Above 7.4% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:59 UTC |
| Z.AI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 28.0% · Above 28.0% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:59 UTC |
| Z.AI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 25.2% · Above 25.2% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:59 UTC |
| Z.AI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 24.0% · Above 24.0% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:59 UTC |
| Z.AI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 18.1% · Above 18.1% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:59 UTC |
| Z.AI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 16.9% · Above 16.9% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:59 UTC |
| Z.AI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 15.2% · Above 15.2% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:59 UTC |
| Z.AI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 13.4% · Above 13.4% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:59 UTC |
| Z.AI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 10.3% · Above 10.3% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:59 UTC |
| Z.AI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 7.5% · Above 7.5% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 11, 04:59 UTC |
| Z.AI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 22.6% · Above 22.6% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 11, 04:59 UTC |
| Z.AI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 18.4% · Above 18.4% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 11, 04:59 UTC |
| Z.AI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 17.5% · Above 17.5% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 11, 04:59 UTC |
| Z.AI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 12.2% · Above 12.2% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 11, 04:59 UTC |
| Z.AI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 11.8% · Above 11.8% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 11, 04:59 UTC |
| Z.AI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 10.1% · Above 10.1% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 11, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.