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How High Will US Gas Prices Get This Week on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if the US national average price of regular gas is greater than $4.0800 for any date from November 9, 2026 to November 15, 2026. Outcome sourced from AAA. This market settles based on the US national average gas prices published by AAA at https://gasprices.aaa.com/. For full rules, see: https://www.polymarketexchange.com/files/products/PMUS%20-%20AAAGASPC%20-%20(2026.08.07).pdf

Market says (typical open contract)
99%
Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
2% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%
99¢ (now)0.1¢$0.0599.1%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
How High Will US Gas Prices Get This Week?98¢98%0.2¢—4%0Nov 23, 04:59 UTC
How High Will US Gas Prices Get This Week?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 23, 04:59 UTC
How High Will US Gas Prices Get This Week?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 23, 04:59 UTC
How High Will US Gas Prices Get This Week?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 23, 04:59 UTC
How High Will US Gas Prices Get This Week?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 23, 04:59 UTC
How High Will US Gas Prices Get This Week?98¢98%0.2¢—4%0Nov 23, 04:59 UTC
How High Will US Gas Prices Get This Week?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 23, 04:59 UTC
How High Will US Gas Prices Get This Week?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 23, 04:59 UTC
How High Will US Gas Prices Get This Week?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 23, 04:59 UTC
How High Will US Gas Prices Get This Week?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 23, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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