What is the fee on Polymarket US for this market?

At the current typical price of 1¢, about 0¢ per contract (9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity, the rate for accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume since 6 November 2026; 6.95% in a new account's first week). On a $50 trade that is about $4.70.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 1% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 1%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Polymarket US › Sports

Michael Hawkins Jr. on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Michael Hawkins Jr. records the most passing touchdowns in the 2026 Big 12 regular season. Statistics are based on official regular season games only. Conference championship games, bowl games, and college football playoff games do not count. If two or more players tie, each tied player's market will settle at $1.00 divided by the number of tied players. Outcome sourced from the relevant governing body.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 141 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

2% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
1¢ (now)	0.1¢	$4.70	1.1%
30¢	2.0¢	$3.32	32.0%
50¢	2.4¢	$2.38	52.4%
70¢	2.0¢	$1.43	72.0%
90¢	0.9¢	$0.47	90.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Michael Hawkins Jr.	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Scotty Fox Jr.	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Devon Dampier	10¢	10%	0.9¢	—	20%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Alonza Barnett III	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Will Hammond	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Jaden Craig	11¢	11%	0.9¢	—	22%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Drew Mestemaker	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Avery Johnson	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Cole Ballard	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Jaylen Raynor	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Conner Weigman	37¢	37%	2.2¢	—	74%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Julian Lewis	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
JC French IV	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Bear Bachmeier	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
DJ Lagway	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Cutter Boley	3¢	3%	0.3¢	—	6%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Noah Fifita	5¢	5%	0.5¢	—	10%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Michael Hawkins Jr.	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Scotty Fox Jr.	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Devon Dampier	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Alonza Barnett III	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Will Hammond	13¢	13%	1.1¢	—	26%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Jaden Craig	16¢	16%	1.3¢	—	32%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Drew Mestemaker	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Avery Johnson	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Cole Ballard	3¢	3%	0.3¢	—	6%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Jaylen Raynor	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Conner Weigman	14¢	14%	1.1¢	—	28%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Julian Lewis	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
JC French IV	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Bear Bachmeier	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
DJ Lagway	3¢	3%	0.3¢	—	6%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Cutter Boley	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Noah Fifita	39¢	39%	2.3¢	—	78%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Cam Cook	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Wayshawn Parker	36¢	36%	2.2¢	—	72%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Cam Cook	90¢	90%	0.9¢	—	20%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Landen Chambers	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Wayshawn Parker	10¢	10%	0.9¢	—	20%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Cameron Dickey	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC

Showing the 40 most traded of 141 open contracts.

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.